Probable affects of US presidential elections on India!
The United States Presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday November 4, 2008. This historic election will be 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election and is a direct contest between Barack Obama of Democratic Party and John McCain of Republican Party. While there are significant differences between John McCain and Barack Obama, either one is likely to pursue foreign policies that will, in several respects, be welcome abroad. The two candidates are distinguishing themselves not just from each other but also from the George w. Bush. They are doing so by promising to rely more than George Bush on diplomacy and international institutions.
Obama has said he would build “a close strategic partnership” with India if he is elected president. Because India and the United States have both experienced major terrorist attacks, “we have a shared interest in succeeding in the fight against al-Qaeda and its operational and ideological affiliates,” Obama wrote in a February 2008 article in India Abroad, a newspaper on Indian affairs published in New York. Obama has chosen Delaware Senator and foreign policy expert Joseph Biden as his Vice-Presidential running mate. Biden, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, helped pilot the US-India Nuclear deal through Congress and initiated the recent eclipse of military rule in Pakistan. This nuclear energy program allows India to purchase nuclear fuel and reactors from the U.S., reversing a 30 year moratorium on such transfers by the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. Biden also co-sponsored the Energy Diplomacy and Security Act of 2007, which calls on the secretary of state to establish “petroleum crisis-response mechanisms with the governments of China and India.” This act aims to increase cooperation on energy issues between the United States Government and foreign governments and entities in order to secure the strategic and economic interests of the United States, and for other purposes. Biden is generally intimate with Indians and the sub-continent. So, quite evidently the Democratic Party-controlled White House (if Barack Obama wins the November Presidential election), could have a pronounced pro-India tilt with Biden as the Vice-president.
Sen. McCain has quoted India’s potential to be one of the “natural allies” of the United States. He stresses the “importance of securing greater U.S. market access to India’s economy of a billion consumers.” In a March 2008 speech, McCain said he believes India should be included in the G-8. McCain voted for the United States-India Energy Security Cooperation Act of 2006. In a May 2008 speech on nuclear security, McCain said he supports the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Accord “as a means of strengthening our relationship with the world’s largest democracy, and further involving India in the fight against proliferation.” He also said the United States should “engage actively” with India to “improve the security of nuclear stockpiles and weapons materials,” and to construct a secure global nuclear order that eliminates the likelihood of proliferation and the possibility of nuclear conflict.”
America’s and India’s leader will also have to contend with the danger of a tipping point in global warming – a crisis for the planet that, if not averted, could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences for many species, including our own. On this issue too, McCain and Obama have committed themselves to negotiating a climate-control regime, one that includes major countries of the developing world including India. Service providers will take concrete steps to introduce environmental business practices and reduce their carbon footprint.
However, the presidential candidates opine that outsourcing is a major problem and the tax breaks granted in the USA to outsourcing jobs, need to end. Obama has promised to reward the businesses that invest in the USA. If this happens, the Indian BPO industry as a major beneficiary of US outsourcing may have to explore alternatives. The presidential elections could delay contract signing as large companies would avoid announcing substantial agreements or employee reduction in 2008, to avoid any potential risk or negative publicity. This could lead to a backlog of unsigned agreements.
Besides the issue of outsourcing, it can be expected that whoever dons the presidential mantle will do nothing that detracts from the healthy respect the US has for India’s democratic credentials and economic achievements.
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